The Future of Everything

October 4, 2008


Filed under: Uncategorized — David @ 3:04 pm

One of the hardest things for weather experts to predict, is the probability that a heavy rain will cause a landslide. One forecaster from the National Hurricane Center in Miami said that for every mudslide they got right, they were “going to end up screaming wolf maybe 10 times.”

In politics it’s even harder to predict whether someone will win an election by a landslide (unless it’s a one-party dictatorship). However I’ll give it a try.

Forecasting models used by political scientists typically take into account factors such as the economy (unemployment, inflation, stockmarket, etc.), the term in office for current president/party (after 8 years people want a change), and military conflicts (winning or losing). All of these factors are in favor of a Democratic president.

However the current economic crisis has changed the landscape of the campaign. Obama has commanding leads in key swing states such as Ohio, Nevada, and Michigan (where McCain recently gave up his campaign). The ground is shifting. There’s going to be a landslide.

And there’s a 10 percent chance that I’m right.

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