The Future of Everything

May 26, 2019

Quantum entanglement, and the strange case of the missing defaulters

Filed under: Economics, Quantum — David @ 6:11 pm

Related imageAccording to the field of quantum cognition, a decision to act is best expressed as a quantum process, where entangled ideas and feelings combine and interfere in the mind to produce a complex, context-dependent response. While the quantum approach has proved successful at modelling many aspects of human behaviour, it is less clear how relevant this is to the economy. This paper argues that the financial system is characterised by three kinds of entanglement: at the individual level between concepts, at the social level with other people, and at the financial level through the use of credit. These entanglements combine in such a way that cognitive processes at the individual level scale up to affect the economy as a whole, in a manner which is best modelled using quantum techniques. The approach is illustrated by making a retroactive “postdiction” about the prevalence of strategic mortgage default during the financial crisis, and a prediction for future such crises.

Read the discussion paper here.

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May 1, 2019

A quantum model of supply and demand

Filed under: Economics, Quantum — David @ 10:25 pm

Here is the abstract for a new discussion paper available at SSRN:

One of the most iconic and influential graphics in economics is the figure showing supply and demand as two lines sloping in opposite directions, with the point at which they intersect representing the equilibrium price which perfectly balances supply and demand. The figure, which dates back to the nineteenth century, can be seen as a graphical representation of Adam Smith’s invisible hand, which is said to guide prices to their optimal level, and features in nearly every introductory textbook. However this figure suffers from a number of basic drawbacks. One is that it doesn’t represent a dynamical view of market forces, so it isn’t clear how prices converge on an equilibrium. Another is that it views supply and demand as deterministic, when in fact they are intrinsically uncertain in nature. This paper addresses these issues by using the quantum formalism to model supply and demand as, not a cross, but a probabilistic wave. The approach is used to derive from first principles a technique for modelling asset price changes using a harmonic oscillator, that has been previously used and empirically tested in quantum finance. The method is demonstrated for a simple system, and applications in other areas of economics are discussed.

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Read the full paper here.

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